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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Forest Planning >Modeling Survival and Destruction of Teak Plantationsin Java, Indonesia
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Modeling Survival and Destruction of Teak Plantationsin Java, Indonesia

机译：印度尼西亚爪哇柚木种植园的生存和破坏建模

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摘要

Teak plantations in Java show severely declining productivity due to various disturbances. The risk of stand destruction, however, is still ignored in determining annual allowable cuts, partly due to the lack of reliable methods to estimate the rate of stand destruction. This study therefore proposed an alternative method, based on the theory of survival analysis coupled with forest register data, for estimating survival probability and destruction rate of teak plantations. We used the forest register data of teak plantations in Kebonharjo, Central Java, for the period 1977-2007. Survival and destruction of plantations were modeled using probability distribution models. To estimate model parameters, we used the maximum likelihood estimation method designed for left-truncated and right-censored data. Results showed that survival probability and destruction rate varied over stand age and planning period. Rates of stand destruction were relatively low (< 2% per year) in the period 1977-1987, but increased up to 3% and 14% per year in the period 1987-1997 and 1997-2007, respectively. The highest rate of destruction mostly occurred in young stands (<= 30 years old), indicating an alarming condition for the sustainability of teak plantations. The survival and destruction models are useful for forest managers to quantify the range of historical variability in forest disturbances and to support the development of alternative harvest scheduling methods that incorporate the risk of stand destruction for teak plantations in Java. The proposed method can also be applied to other regions, especially when only forest register data are available.
机译：由于各种干扰，爪哇的柚木种植园显示出生产力严重下降。但是，在确定年度允许减产时，仍会忽略林分破坏的风险，部分原因是缺乏可靠的方法来估算林分破坏的速度。因此，本研究提出了一种基于生存分析理论和森林登记数据的替代方法，用于估算柚木人工林的生存概率和破坏率。我们使用了中爪哇省Kebonharjo的1977-2007年柚木人工林的森林登记数据。使用概率分布模型对人工林的生存和破坏进行建模。为了估计模型参数，我们使用了为左截断和右删截的数据设计的最大似然估计方法。结果表明，生存期和破坏率随林分龄和计划期而变化。在1977-1987年期间，林分销毁率相对较低（每年<2％），但在1987-1997年和1997-2007年期间分别上升到每年3％和14％。销毁率最高的地区主要是幼林（<= 30岁），这表明柚木种植园的可持续性令人震惊。生存和破坏模型对于森林管理者来说是有用的，它可以量化森林干扰的历史变化范围，并支持开发替代采伐计划方法，该方法结合了爪哇柚木人工林的林分破坏风险。所提出的方法也可以应用于其他地区，尤其是在只有森林注册数据可用的情况下。

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