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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Forest Planning >Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea Using MCI Model
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Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea Using MCI Model

机译:利用MCI模型评估韩国森林生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性

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The objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) model, one of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Also, it was to suggest selected and concentrated adaptation strategies for local government on the basis of this assessment. For the MCI simulation of past years (1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model (ECHO-G) provided the future climatic data under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario of IPCC) A1B scenarios. This study predicted the changes in vegetationdistribution by climate change, and it analyzed the spatial and temporal variation of the Net Primary Production (NPP) and Soil Carbon Storage (SCS) using the MCI model simulations. The vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystem can be divided into two categories; 1) the vulnerability of vegetation distribution and 2) the vulnerability of forest ecosystem function, such as the NPP and SCS. In addition, the sensitivity and adaption capacity were evaluated for each categoiy. As results of the vulnerability assessment, relatively vulnerable areas were situated in the western coastal part and south eastern inland of Korea. Based on the spatial variation in vulnerability, we could suggest that the central and local governments need to prepare concentrated adaptation strategies for climate change based on the vulnerability assessment.
机译:这项研究的目的是使用动态全球植被模型(DGVM)之一的MAPSS-CENTURY(MCI)模型评估韩国森林生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性。此外,还应根据此评估为地方政府提出精选和集中的适应策略。对于过去几年(1971-2000年)的MCI模拟,由韩国气象局(KMA)准备了气候数据。此外,在未来的模拟中,第五代NCAR / Penn状态中尺度模型(MM5)与大气-海洋环流模型(ECHO-G)结合提供了SRES(IPCC排放情景特别报告)下的未来气候数据。 A1B方案。这项研究预测了气候变化引起的植被分布变化,并使用MCI模型模拟分析了净初级生产(NPP)和土壤碳储量(SCS)的时空变化。森林生态系统的脆弱性评估可分为两类: 1)植被分布的脆弱性和2)森林生态系统功能(如NPP和SCS)的脆弱性。此外,还对每种类别的敏感性和适应能力进行了评估。脆弱性评估的结果是,相对脆弱的地区位于韩国的西部沿海地区和东南内陆。根据脆弱性的空间变化,我们可以建议中央和地方政府需要根据脆弱性评估为气候变化准备集中的适应策略。

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