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The home disadvantage in championship competitions: team sports

机译:冠军赛的主场劣势:团体运动

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Objectives: The possibility that home teams might choke in decisive games of championship series was first proposed by Baumeister and Steinhilber in 1984. Their hypothesis was that when the home team was on the verge of winning a championship, it tended to choke. As a result, the home advantage would be smaller in last games than in early games of the same series. The present paper updates the original data for baseball and basketball to 2012 and adds a parallel study of ice hockey. Design/Method: The analysis compares home win percentage early in a championship series with home advantage in the regular season. Its main focus, however, is on the games in a championship series between the early and late games. Results: The first of two main results is that in all three sports the percentage of home wins in Game 1 of a championship series is substantially higher than home advantage in the same sport in the regular season. The second result is that, while the tendency for percent home wins to decrease regularly over the course of a best-of-seven series is confirmed in all three sports, this decrease is complete or almost complete by Game 4, well before the home choke, according to Baumeister and Steinhilber, is supposed to occur. Conclusion: The home-choke hypothesis as originally advanced in 1984 is not supported by subsequent results and analysis.
机译:目标:1984年,鲍迈斯特(Baumeister)和斯坦希尔伯(Steinhilber)首次提出主队可能会在决定性的冠军系列赛中窒息。他们的假设是,当主队濒临夺冠时,往往会窒息。结果,上一场比赛的主场优势将小于同一系列赛的早期比赛的主场优势。本文件将棒球和篮球的原始数据更新到2012年,并增加了一项冰球运动的平行研究。设计/方法:分析将冠军系列赛早期的主场胜利百分比与常规赛季的主场优势进行比较。但是,它的主要重点是在早期和晚期比赛之间的冠军系列赛中。结果:两个主要结果中的第一个是,在所有三种运动中,冠军系列赛第一场的主场获胜百分比显着高于常规运动中同一项运动的主场优势。第二个结果是,尽管在所有三种运动中都证实了在七个最佳系列赛中主场获胜百分比有规律地下降的趋势,但这种下降在第4场比赛就已经完成或几乎完成,即在主场扼杀之前根据鲍迈斯特(Baumeister)和斯坦希尔伯(Steinhilber)的说法,这应该发生。结论:最初在1984年提出的家庭扼流圈假说不受后续结果和分析的支持。

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