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The economic impact of potential migration policies in the UK after Brexit

机译：BREXIT后英国潜在移民政策对英国的经济影响

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摘要

The bulk of studies which attempt to quantify the effects of Brexit focus on trade issues; however, very few of them have analysed migration. In this paper, we analyse the impact of several migration policies on GDP, GDP per capita, wages, national income and sectoral production in the UK, using what is technically called a general equilibrium analysis. We also analyse the impact at the macroeconomic level on the EU. We find that migration has the potential of deeply affecting economic activity in the UK. The more restrictive immigration policies are, the greater the losses in terms of GDP and Welfare. However, according to the text of the 'joint agreement' reached by the UK and EU on December 8 (2017), very restrictive policies seem to be ruled out. Nevertheless, after the 'Windrush scandal' some doubts about the final implementation of future UK migration policies remain. We also analyse mild migration policies which would only reduce the number of migrants received. Reductions in the number of EU immigrants between 42,000 and 87,000 per year would lead to foregone GDP increases in the UK between 0.08% and 0.17%. This impact should be considered cumulative across years in which the net inflows are reduced, so that negative effects for GDP and welfare can be substantial if the reduction in workers takes place during many years in a row. The UK currently has easy access to a large pool of workers coming from other EU member states, and UK managers have expressed that it is hard to replace EU talent in the short term. This suggests that if the political imperative for tighter immigration control cannot be avoided, gradual immigration restrictiveness will be less harmful for the UK's economy and should be accompanied by additional efforts in education and workers' training.
机译：尝试量化Brexit侧重于贸易问题的大部分研究;但是，很少有人分析了迁移。在本文中，利用技术上称为一般均衡分析，分析了若干移民政策对英国GDP，人均工资，国民收入和部门生产的影响。我们还分析了欧盟宏观经济水平对宏观经济水平的影响。我们发现迁移有可能深入影响英国的经济活动。越来越严格的移民政策是，GDP和福利方面的损失就越大。但是，根据英国和欧盟于12月8日（2017年）达成的“联合协议”的文本，似乎已经排除了非常严格的政策。尽管如此，在“Windrush Scandal”一些怀疑的关于未来英国移民政策的最终实施之后。我们还分析了轻度移民政策，只会减少收到的移民人数。 42,000和87,000之间的欧盟移民的数量减少将导致英国的GDP增加0.08％和0.17％。这种影响应该被认为是净流入减少的多年的累积，因此如果在连续多年的工人减少时，GDP和福利对GDP和福利的负面影响可能很大。英国目前客人可以轻松前往来自其他欧盟成员国的大型工人，而英国经理表明，很难在短期内取代欧盟人才。这表明，如果无法避免对暴力移民控制的政治要求，逐步的移民限制性对英国经济的危害较小，并应伴随着教育和工人培训的额外努力。

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  • 来源
    《Society》 |2019年第2期|208-225|共18页
  • 作者

    Gabriela Ortiz Valverde; Maria C. Latorre;

  • 作者单位

    Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales Facultad de Estudios Estadisticos Universidad Complutense de Madrid Madrid Espana Facultad de Ciencias Sociales Escuela de Economia Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica Heredia Costa Rica;

    Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales Facultad de Estudios Estadisticos Universidad Complutense de Madrid Madrid Espana;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Immigrants; Brexit; policies; simulations; computable general equilibrium (CGE) models;

    机译：移民;brexit;政策;模拟;可计算一般均衡（CGE）型号;

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