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The economic impact of potential migration policies in the UK after Brexit

机译：英国脱欧后英国潜在移民政策的经济影响

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摘要

The bulk of studies which attempt to quantify the effects of Brexit focus on trade issues; however, very few of them have analysed migration. In this paper, we analyse the impact of several migration policies on GDP, GDP per capita, wages, national income and sectoral production in the UK, using what is technically called a general equilibrium analysis. We also analyse the impact at the macroeconomic level on the EU. We find that migration has the potential of deeply affecting economic activity in the UK. The more restrictive immigration policies are, the greater the losses in terms of GDP and Welfare. However, according to the text of the 'joint agreement' reached by the UK and EU on December 8 (2017), very restrictive policies seem to be ruled out. Nevertheless, after the 'Windrush scandal' some doubts about the final implementation of future UK migration policies remain. We also analyse mild migration policies which would only reduce the number of migrants received. Reductions in the number of EU immigrants between 42,000 and 87,000 per year would lead to foregone GDP increases in the UK between 0.08% and 0.17%. This impact should be considered cumulative across years in which the net inflows are reduced, so that negative effects for GDP and welfare can be substantial if the reduction in workers takes place during many years in a row. The UK currently has easy access to a large pool of workers coming from other EU member states, and UK managers have expressed that it is hard to replace EU talent in the short term. This suggests that if the political imperative for tighter immigration control cannot be avoided, gradual immigration restrictiveness will be less harmful for the UK's economy and should be accompanied by additional efforts in education and workers' training.
机译：试图量化英国退欧影响的大量研究都集中在贸易问题上；但是，很少有人分析过迁移。在本文中，我们使用技术上称为一般均衡分析的方法，分析了几种移民政策对英国的GDP，人均GDP，工资，国民收入和部门生产的影响。我们还分析了宏观经济对欧盟的影响。我们发现移民有可能深刻影响英国的经济活动。限制性政策越严格，对GDP和福利的损失就越大。然而，根据英国和欧盟于2017年12月8日达成的``共同协议''的文本，似乎排除了非常严格的政策。然而，在“风潮丑闻”之后，人们对英国未来移民政策的最终实施仍然存有疑问。我们还分析了温和的移民政策，这只会减少接收的移民人数。每年减少42,000至87,000的欧盟移民人数，将导致英国的GDP增长减少0.08％至0.17％。在减少净流入的年份中，这种影响应视为累积的，因此，如果连续多年减少工人数量，对GDP和福利的负面影响将是巨大的。英国目前可以轻松地找到来自其他欧盟成员国的大量工人，而且英国管理人员表示，短期内很难取代欧盟人才。这表明，如果不能避免采取严格的移民控制的政治要求，那么逐步限制移民对英国经济的危害将较小，并应在教育和工人培训方面做出更多努力。

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  • 来源
    《Society》 |2019年第2期|208-225|共18页
  • 作者

    Gabriela Ortiz Valverde; Maria C. Latorre;

  • 作者单位

    Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Facultad de Estudios Estadisticos, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Espana,Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Escuela de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica, Heredia, Costa Rica;

    Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Facultad de Estudios Estadisticos, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Espana;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Immigrants; Brexit; policies; simulations; computable general equilibrium (CGE) models;

    机译：移民;英国脱欧;政策;模拟;可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型;

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