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The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU

机译：在欧盟的硬布雷克利特的产品和部门水平影响

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摘要

The UK exit from the European Union (Brexit) is likely to have a range of impacts, with trade flows one of the most immediate areas where the effects will become evident. One possible outcome of Brexit is a situation where WTO tariffs apply to merchandise trade between the UK and the EU. By examining detailed trade flows between the UK and all other EU members, matching over 5200 products to the WTO tariff applicable to external EU trade this paper shows that such an outcome would result in significantly different impacts across countries. Our estimates of exposure at the country level show an extremely wide range with reductions in trade to the UK falling by 5% (Finland) to 43% (Bulgaria) taking into account the new tariffs and the elasticity of the trade response to this price increase. Food and textiles trade are the hardest hit, with trade in these sectors reducing by up to 90%.
机译：英国从欧盟（Brexit）出口可能会产生一系列影响，贸易流动了效果将变得明显的最直接区域之一。 Brexit的一个可能结果是WTO关税适用于英国和欧盟之间的商品贸易的情况。通过审查英国和所有其他欧盟成员之间的详细贸易流量，将5200多个产品与适用于外部欧盟贸易的WTO关税匹配本文表明，这种结果将导致各国对各国的显着不同影响。我们对国家一级的曝光估计展示了极大的范围，延伸到英国贸易减少5％（芬兰）到43％（保加利亚）考虑到新关税和贸易响应的弹性增加。食品和纺织品贸易是最艰难的，这些部门的贸易减少了90％。

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  • 来源
    《Society》 |2019年第2期|189-207|共19页
  • 作者

    Martina Lawless; Edgar L. W. Morgenroth;

  • 作者单位

    Economic Analysis Division Economic and Social Research Institute Dublin Ireland Department of Economics Trinity College College Green Dublin Ireland;

    DCU Business School Dublin City University Glasnevin Ireland;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Brexit; WTO tariffs; merchandise trade;

    机译：brexit;WTO关税;商品交易;

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