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The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU

机译：欧盟全民退欧对产品和行业的影响

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摘要

The UK exit from the European Union (Brexit) is likely to have a range of impacts, with trade flows one of the most immediate areas where the effects will become evident. One possible outcome of Brexit is a situation where WTO tariffs apply to merchandise trade between the UK and the EU. By examining detailed trade flows between the UK and all other EU members, matching over 5200 products to the WTO tariff applicable to external EU trade this paper shows that such an outcome would result in significantly different impacts across countries. Our estimates of exposure at the country level show an extremely wide range with reductions in trade to the UK falling by 5% (Finland) to 43% (Bulgaria) taking into account the new tariffs and the elasticity of the trade response to this price increase. Food and textiles trade are the hardest hit, with trade in these sectors reducing by up to 90%.
机译：英国退出欧盟（英国退欧）可能会产生一系列影响，贸易流量是影响最明显的最直接区域之一。英国退欧的一个可能结果是，世贸组织关税适用于英国和欧盟之间的商品贸易。通过研究英国与所有其他欧盟成员国之间的详细贸易流量，将5200多种产品与适用于欧盟外部贸易的WTO关税相匹配，本文显示出这样的结果将导致各国之间的重大不同影响。我们对国家/地区的敞口估计值显示出非常大的范围，考虑到新的关税和贸易对价格上涨的弹性，英国对英国的贸易减少幅度下降了5％（芬兰），降至4​​3％（保加利亚） 。食品和纺织品贸易受到的打击最大，这些部门的贸易减少了多达90％。

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  • 来源
    《Society》 |2019年第2期|189-207|共19页
  • 作者

    Martina Lawless; Edgar L. W. Morgenroth;

  • 作者单位

    Economic Analysis Division, Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland,Department of Economics, Trinity College, College Green, Dublin, Ireland;

    DCU Business School, Dublin City University, Glasnevin, Ireland;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Brexit; WTO tariffs; merchandise trade;

    机译：英国脱欧;世贸组织关税;商品交易;

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