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The Predicted Growth of the Low Earth Orbit Space Debris Environment: An Assessment of Future Risk for Spacecraft

机译：低地球轨道空间碎片环境的预计增长：对航天器未来风险的评估

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Space debris is a worldwide-recognized issue concerning the safety of commercial, military, and exploration spacecraft. The space debris environment includes both naturally occuring meteoroids and objects in Earth orbit that are generated by human activity, termed orbital debris. Space agencies around the world are addressing the dangers of debris collisions to both crewed and robotic spacecraft. In the United States, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center leads the effort to categorize debris, predict its growth, and formulate mitigation policy for the environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). This paper presents recent results derived from the NASA long-term debris environment model, LEGEND. It includes the revised NASA sodium potassium droplet model, newly corrected for a factor of two over-estimation of the droplet population. The study indicates a LEO environment that is already highly collisionally active among orbital debris larger than 1 cm in size. Most of the modeled collision events are non-catastrophic (i.e., They lead to a cratering of the target, but no large scale fragmentation.). But they are potentially mission-ending, and take place between impactors smaller than 10 cm and targets larger than 10 cm. Given the small size of the impactor these events would likely be undetectable by present-day measurement means. The activity continues into the future as would be expected. Impact rates of about four per year are predicted by the current study within the next 30 years, with the majority of targets being abandoned intacts (spent upper stages and spacecraft). Still, operational spacecraft do show a small collisional activity, one that increases over time as the small fragment population increases.
机译：空间碎片是全球公认的有关商业，军事和探索航天器安全的问题。空间碎片环境既包括自然存在的流星体，也包括人类活动在地球轨道上产生的物体，称为轨道碎片。世界各地的航天局都在解决碎片撞击对乘员和机器人航天器的危害。在美国，美国宇航局约翰逊航天中心的轨道碎片计划办公室负责对碎片进行分类，预测其增长并制定从低地球轨道（LEO）到地球同步轨道（GEO）的环境缓解政策。本文介绍了来自NASA长期碎片环境模型LEGEND的最新结果。它包括修改后的NASA钠钾小滴模型，新近对小滴种群进行了两次高估校正。研究表明，LEO环境在大小大于1 cm的轨道碎片之间已经具有很高的碰撞活性。大多数建模的碰撞事件都是非灾难性的（即，它们导致目标的陨石坑，但不会造成大规模碎片）。但是它们可能会结束任务，发生在小于10厘米的撞击器和大于10厘米的目标之间。考虑到撞击器的尺寸很小，这些事件可能无法通过当今的测量手段检测到。如预期的那样，该活动将持续到未来。根据目前的研究，在未来30年内，预计每年的撞击率约为4％，而大部分目标将完好无损（花费在上层阶段和航天器上）。尽管如此，运行中的航天器确实显示出很小的碰撞活动，随着小碎片的增加，碰撞活动随时间而增加。

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    Krisko Paula H.;

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