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Some Stylized Facts about International Trade Flows

机译：关于国际贸易流的一些典型事实

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摘要

Since the mid-1990s there has been a proliferation of empirical models in the trade literature. Focus has ranged from the effect of particular explanatory variables to improved econometric techniques. However, there appears to be a lack of analyses on large international trade datasets aiming at describing the "stylized facts" of observed bilateral trade flows. Uncovering them is crucial as any empirical econometric model should reflect the basic properties of the data generating process. On the basis of a large panel dataset this paper finds that bilateral trade, despite being often unbalanced, tends to be reciprocal and persistent, and that the extensive margin of trade must not be disregarded. Moreover, bilateral trade flows are probably best modeled as a mixed panel of stationary and non-stationary processes. The stationary vs non-stationary separation of these flows, although not random, does not appear to be related to any common characteristics of the trading partners.
机译：自1990年代中期以来，贸易文献中的经验模型激增。重点从特定解释变量的影响到改进的计量经济学技术不等。但是，似乎缺乏对大型国际贸易数据集进行分析的目的，以描述观察到的双边贸易流的“典型事实”。发现它们至关重要，因为任何经验经济计量模型都应反映数据生成过程的基本属性。本文基于一个大型面板数据集发现，尽管双边贸易经常不平衡，但往往是相互的和持久的，并且不应忽略广泛的贸易边际。此外，最好将双边贸易流建模为固定和非固定过程的混合面板。这些流量的固定与非固定分离，尽管不是随机的，但似乎与贸易伙伴的任何共同特征无关。

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  • 来源
    《Review of international economics》 |2012年第4期|p.781-792|共12页
  • 作者

    Mark N. Harris; Laszlo Konya; Laszlo Matyas;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Econometrics and Quantitative Modelling, Curtin University, Perth, Australia;

    School of Economics and Finance, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria 3086, Australia;

    Department of Economics, Central European University,Nador u. 9, Budapest 1051, Hungary;

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