...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Review of international economics >Balance-of-Payments Crises During the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?
【24h】

Balance-of-Payments Crises During the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

机译：大萧条期间的国际收支危机：这次不同吗？

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

During the 2007-09 financial crisis large volatility and wide currency swings characterized the foreign exchange market. This paper utilizes the early-warning framework to evaluate whether during the period of the Great Recession there has been a structural break in the relationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. This is done by extending an original data set from 1999 and including not only the most recent period, but also 17 new countries. The analysis considers two variations of the original early-warning system. First, two new methods are proposed to obtain the probability distribution of the early-warning indicator (conditional on the occurrence of a crisis)—one fully parametric and one based on a novel distribution-free semi-parametric approach. Second, the original early-warning indicator is compared with a core indicator that includes only "pseudo-financial variables" (domestic credit/GDP, the real exchange rate, international reserves and the real interest-rate differential) and their performance is evaluated not only for currency crises during the Great Recession, but also for the Asian Crisis. The conclusion from all tests is that "this time is different", i.e. early-warning systems based on traditional macroeconomic variables have not only failed to forecast currency crises during the Great Recession, but have also significantly worsened with respect to the period of the Asian crisis.
机译：在2007-09年金融危机期间，外汇市场表现出巨大的动荡和广泛的货币波动。本文利用预警框架来评估在大萧条时期，基本面和汇率之间的关系是否存在结构性断裂。通过扩展1999年以来的原始数据集，不仅包括最近时期，还包括17个新国家。分析考虑了原始预警系统的两个变体。首先，提出了两种新方法来获取预警指标的概率分布（以危机发生为条件），一种是完全参数化的方法，另一种是基于新颖的无分布半参数方法的方法。其次，将原始预警指标与仅包含“伪金融变量”（国内信贷/ GDP，实际汇率，国际储备和实际利率差异）的核心指标进行比较，并且不对其绩效进行评估不仅适用于大萧条期间的货币危机，还适用于亚洲危机。所有测试得出的结论是，“这次是不同的”，即基于传统宏观经济变量的预警系统不仅未能预测大萧条期间的货币危机，而且在亚洲时期也大大恶化了危机。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号