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首页> 外文期刊>Review of international economics >Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances
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Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances

机译：经常账户余额背后的结构和周期性因素

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摘要

Global external imbalances widened persistently over the last several years and have narrowed abruptly over the course of the financial crisis. Understanding the extent to which structural or cyclical factors may have driven these patterns is important to assess the likely evolution of global imbalances going forward, as well as the potential adjustment that can be achieved through changes in policy. This paper assesses the link between structural and cyclical factors and current account balances using a panel of 94 countries from 1973 to 2008. We find that the medium-term evolution of global external imbalances can be related in large part to structural factors including cross-country differences in demographics, fiscal deficits, oil dependency and intensity, stage of economic development, financial market development, and institutional quality. Part of the narrowing in current account balances since the financial crisis appears to be related to various cyclical factors including changes in output growth, oil prices, and exchange rates, and may be expected to reverse alongside the economic recovery.
机译：全球外部失衡在过去几年中持续扩大，并在金融危机期间急剧缩小。了解结构或周期性因素可能在何种程度上驱动了这些模式，对于评估未来全球失衡的可能演变以及通过政策变化可以实现的潜在调整至关重要。本文使用由94个国家组成的小组，评估了1973年至2008年的结构性和周期性因素与经常账户余额之间的联系。我们发现，全球外部失衡的中期演变在很大程度上与包括跨国家在内的结构性因素有关人口统计学差异，财政赤字，石油依赖程度和强度，经济发展阶段，金融市场发展和机构质量。自金融危机以来，经常账户余额缩水的部分原因似乎与各种周期性因素有关，包括产出增长，石油价格和汇率的变化，并有望随着经济复苏而逆转。

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  • 来源
    《Review of international economics》 |2013年第5期|923-944|共22页
  • 作者

    Calista Cheung; Davide Furceri; Elena Rusticelli;

  • 作者单位

    Economics Department,OECD, 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France;

    International Monetary Fund, 700 19th St, NW, Washington, DC 20431, USA;

    Economics Department,OECD, 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France;

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