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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Monitoring and Assessment >Modified Grey Model and its application to groundwater flow analysis with limited hydrogeological data: a case study of the Nubian Sandstone, Kharga Oasis, Egypt
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Modified Grey Model and its application to groundwater flow analysis with limited hydrogeological data: a case study of the Nubian Sandstone, Kharga Oasis, Egypt

机译：改进的灰色模型及其在水文地质数据有限的地下水流分析中的应用：以埃及哈尔加绿洲努比亚砂岩为例

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摘要

Groundwater flow at Kharga Oasis, located in the western desert of Egypt, was previously analyzed using numerical models; however, the lack of basic data often limits the implementation of these models, as well as introducing a problem for model calibration and validation. The Grey Model (GM) was used to overcome these difficulties of data limitation and uncertainty of hydrogeological conditions. However, no clear theories exist for selecting the number of input model trends and the most suitable values of input parameters. Therefore, in the current study, a modification of the GM is newly proposed and called the Modified Grey Model (MGM) in an attempt to determine a process for selecting the best input models' trends with the appropriate values of input parameters to achieve acceptable fitting to observations. The sensitivity analysis results showed that the MGM produced more stable results than the GM using a wide range of values for input parameters. Moreover, the MGM reduced the calculation time required for fitting the measured piezometric level trends by 99.8 %. Three development scenarios of groundwater withdrawal were proposed that involved either expanding the present extraction rate or redistributing the ground-water withdrawal over the recent working production wells (RWPWs). The results concluded that the groundwater table in the northern part of the oasis could be temporally recovered to an economical piezometric level; however, the table in the southern part is severely decreased. Therefore, new production wells are recommended to be constructed in the southern part far enough from the RWPWs.
机译：先前使用数值模型分析了位于埃及西部沙漠的喀尔加绿洲的地下水流量。然而，缺乏基本数据常常限制了这些模型的实施，并且给模型校准和验证带来了问题。灰色模型（GM）用于克服数据限制和水文地质条件不确定性的这些困难。但是，没有明确的理论来选择输入模型趋势的数量和最合适的输入参数值。因此，在当前的研究中，新提出了对GM的修改，并称为修改灰色模型（MGM），以试图确定一种选择适当输入参数值来选择最佳输入模型趋势的过程，以实现可接受的拟合。观察。灵敏度分析结果表明，使用宽范围的输入参数值，MGM产生的结果比GM更稳定。此外，MGM将拟合测得的压力水平趋势所需的计算时间减少了99.8％。提出了三种取水的发展方案，包括扩大目前的采出率或在最近的生产井（RWPWs）上重新分配取水量。结果表明，绿洲北部的地下水位可以暂时恢复到经济的测压水平。但是，南部的餐桌严重减少。因此，建议在远离RWPW的南部建造新的生产井。

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