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The formation of aggregate expectations: wisdom of the crowds or media influence?

机译：总期望的形成：人群的智慧还是媒体的影响？

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摘要

The general elections of 2015 in Spain were elections of change. Two new parties for which voters had no previous historical reference points burst onto the parliamentary scene. Two (partially) opposed theories vie to offer an explanation as to how voters build their aggregate electoral expectations. In this paper, we investigate which mechanism has the greatest influence on the formation of expectations: published opinion or social interactions. Likewise, we also study if there is an ideological bias in the voters' perception of the future results of the electoral battle. Based on analysis of microdata from a survey (sample size = 14,262) conducted in Spain on the occasion of the general elections of 2015, we provide evidence: firstly, that the published surveys are the main source used by voters to configure their aggregate expectations; and secondly, that the interpretation and projection that voters make about reality is not neutral, but strongly influenced by their own beliefs and preferences.
机译：2015年西班牙大选是变革选举。两个新的政党突然进入议会舞台，而选民此前没有这两个政党的历史参考点。两种（部分）对立的理论试图对选民如何建立其总体选举期望做出解释。在本文中，我们研究了哪种机制对期望的形成影响最大：公开发表的观点或社会互动。同样，我们还研究选民对选举斗争未来结果的看法是否存在意识形态偏见。基于对2015年大选时在西班牙进行的一项调查（样本量= 14,262）的微观数据的分析，我们提供了证据：首先，已发布的调查是选民用来设定其总体期望的主要来源；其次，选民对现实的解释和预测不是中立的，而是受到他们自己信仰和偏好的强烈影响。

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  • 来源
    《Contemporary social science》 |2019年第1期|132-143|共12页
  • 作者

    Jose M. Pavia; Itziar Gil-Carceller; Alfredo Rubio-Mataix; Vicente Coll; Jose A. Alvarez-Jareno; Cristina Aybar; Salvador Carrasco-Arroyo;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Applied Economics, Elections and Public Opinion Research Group (GIPEyOP), Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, Spain;

    Department of Applied Economics, GIPEyOP, Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, Spain;

    Department of Applied Economics, Elections and Public Opinion Research Group (GIPEyOP), Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, Spain;

    Department of Applied Economics, MC2, Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, Spain;

    Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castello, Spain;

    Department of Applied Economics, Elections and Public Opinion Research Group (GIPEyOP), Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, Spain;

    Department of Applied Economics, Elections and Public Opinion Research Group (GIPEyOP), Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, Spain;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Voting; mass media; public opinion; election polls; partisan bias; Spain;

    机译：表决;媒体;舆论;选举民意调查;党派偏见西班牙;

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