Risk assessment in prospective performance prediction for subcontractors

Eddie W.L. Cheng

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Risk assessment in prospective performance prediction for subcontractors

机译：分包商预期绩效预测中的风险评估

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This paper suggests predicting and comparing prospective performances of subcontractors for better allocation of resources prior to the commencement of the construction phase of a project. A plausible way is to calculate the expected value (i.e. mean value) using the past performance data. Using past data to predict the future, however, incurs a certain degree of risk. In order to increase the accuracy of estimation, risk assessment should be incorporated. Therefore, this paper introduces a method, which is simple to use. The method consists of seven major steps: (1) identification of the risk assessment problem; (2) development of assessment criteria and associated scales; (3) specification of the time horizon of interest; (4) collection of data from subcontractors; (5) application of risk possibility assessment; (6) construction of the risk profile and (7) response to risks based on management preferences. An example is demonstrated to illustrate how risk assessment can be incorporated into predicting and comparing subcontractors' performances. The bootstrap method has been introduced for obtaining more accurate estimates when a small sample is used.

机译：本文建议在项目建设阶段开始之前预测和比较分包商的预期绩效，以更好地分配资源。一种可行的方法是使用过去的效果数据来计算期望值（即平均值）。但是，使用过去的数据预测未来会带来一定程度的风险。为了提高估计的准确性，应纳入风险评估。因此，本文介绍了一种易于使用的方法。该方法包括七个主要步骤：（1）识别风险评估问题；（2）制定评估标准和相关量表；（3）指定感兴趣的时间范围；（4）从分包商处收集数据；（五）风险可能性评估的应用；（6）风险简介的构建和（7）基于管理偏好的风险响应。举例说明了如何将风险评估纳入预测和比较分包商绩效的过程。引入了自举方法，以便在使用少量样本时获得更准确的估计。

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《Architectural science review》 |2016年第2期|126-135|共10页
作者
Eddie W.L. Cheng;
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作者单位

Department of Social Sciences, The Hong Kong Institute of Education, Tai Po, Hong Kong;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
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关键词
risk assessment; risk management; construction; performance; project management;

机译：风险评估;风险管理;施工;性能;项目管理;

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Risk assessment in prospective performance prediction for subcontractors

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