为从定量上了解城镇住房保障规模对商品房价格影响的变化规律,本文应用Granger因果分析理论确定了影响住房保障规模和商品房价格的主要因素及其关系,构建了住房保障规模的系统动力学模型,并进行了模拟仿真。结果显示,住房保障规模增加10%可抑制商品房价格4.67%的上涨幅度,表明了保障性住房的投入对商品房价格的抑制效应,并就如何加快保障性住房建设提出了建议。%To understand quantitatively the impact variation of urban housing security scale on real estate prices,this paper applies Granger causality analysis theory to determine the main factors and their relationship affecting the real estate prices and urban housing security scale,build the system dynamics model of the scale of housing security,and carries out simulation.The results show that the scale of housing security increase by 10%inhibits the rate of increase of 4.67%in real estate prices,which indicates that the inhibitory effect of investment in affordable housing on real estate prices.Finally,the paper put forward suggestions on how to speed up construction of affordable housing.
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