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Comparison of quantitative precipitation forecast, a precipitation-based quantitative precipitation estimate and a radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimate.

机译:比较定量降水预测,基于降水的定量降水估计和由雷达得出的定量降水估计。

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摘要

High-based convection, shallow winter storms, and topographic effects often result in inaccurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) using radar data alone. This study used radar QPE data and California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) Mountain Mapper (MM) QPE data for verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). A comparative analysis was conducted using radar QPE, CNRFC MM QPE, QPF results, and selected gauge data on both sides of the Sierra Nevada. Results from three winter storm events showed that the radar QPE estimates underestimated the gauge measurements on the downwind side, but were in reasonable agreement on the upwind side, except for a few storm periods when the radar QPE overestimated the gauge measurements. Overall results of the CNRFC MM QPE showed smaller overestimates and underestimates when compared to the gauge measurements. Using methods developed in this research, National Weather Service forecasters will be able to utilize radar-derived QPE products in near real-time, together with MM data, for short term forecasting applications.
机译:高对流,冬季浅风暴和地形影响常常导致仅使用雷达数据的不准确的定量降水估算(QPE)。这项研究使用雷达QPE数据和加利福尼亚内华达河预报中心(CNRFC)的Mountain Mapper(MM)QPE数据来验证定量降水预报(QPF)。使用雷达QPE,CNRFC MM QPE,QPF结果以及在内华达山脉两侧的选定仪表数据进行了比较分析。来自三个冬季暴风雨事件的结果表明,雷达QPE估计低估了顺风侧的轨距测量值,但在上风侧却合理地吻合,除了少数风暴期间,雷达QPE高估了轨距测量值。与量规测量相比,CNRFC MM QPE的总体结果显示较小的高估和低估。使用这项研究中开发的方法,美国国家气象局的预报员将能够将雷达衍生的QPE产品以及MM数据几乎实时用于短期预报应用。

著录项

  • 作者

    Chew, Serena J.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Nevada, Reno.;

  • 授予单位 University of Nevada, Reno.;
  • 学科 Physics Atmospheric Science.
  • 学位 M.S.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 137 p.
  • 总页数 137
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 大气科学(气象学);
  • 关键词

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